Gridiron Challenge: Week 1 preview

By Jim McCormick
Special to ESPN.com
Archive

You can come out of the cave. Football hibernation has ended; it's time to feast on some fantasy football games.

If you play fantasy football -- and you do -- you understand how to evaluate the marketplace for players. The goal has long been to maximize your roster each week. The drawback in fantasy football is that our teams are often subject to circumstance; draft position, injuries and just plain bad luck are uncontrollable elements. Although injury and misfortune still invade Gridiron Challenge rosters, changing a team's fortunes requires just a few savvy clicks of your mouse.

Because we're at the doorstep of another NFL marathon, it's wise to consider this simple explanation on how to excel at this game from our How to Play page: By selecting players or teams you think are undervalued compared to their potential performance, you get the most out of your Gridiron Challenge team.

You constantly want to look for value on the Gridiron marketplace, but also keep in mind a player's pedigree and potential. You can get too cute with your roster if you seek out only sleepers; remember that the big names are often big for a reason. Matthew Stafford certainly could throw a few touchdowns in garbage time this week, but it's wiser to go with a more proven arm this early in the game.

Crafting a delicate balance of proven, aka expensive, talents, and some potential-laden bargains is the key to climbing the leaderboard. Never be afraid to be fluid with your roster, as tweaks to a successful team can propel you into a new echelon of the rankings. Use the roster mobility this unique format affords you; if injury or being challenged for work potentially limits a player, simply look elsewhere. If depth charts and game plans are constantly in flux, your team should be as well.

If you apply the same shrewd and thoughtful approach that you do to your "normal" fantasy teams, you'll excel at the Challenge.

Now, the Week 1 picks …

Bull Market

Investments that should bear out as the season progresses

Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings (5.3 price tag): Brett Favre has gained many detractors during the past few seasons with his annual retirement circus, but his arm strength remains indisputable. Berrian, a true burner, stands to benefit the most from Favre's ability to regularly sling the deep ball, and he comes at a discount, priced below more questionable commodities such as Lee Evans and Antonio Bryant.

Kris Brown, K, Texans (4.1 price tag): Although kickers are often seen as a nuisance on fantasy teams and in locker rooms alike, good ones can propel a team's success. When selecting a kicker, seek out offenses that will move the ball capably between the 20s, yet struggle in the red zone to some degree. Although the Texans have some amazing offensive talent to call on, they lack a definitive goal-line tailback, which could lead Brown to put up a number of field goals against the Jets' solid rush defense and throughout.

Marques Colston, WR, Saints (5.7 price tag): Hosting the hapless Detroit Lions secondary is as enticing as any matchup in football. Costing a tad less than the elite receivers, Colston is a key cog in the league's most prolific passing offense and supremely motivated to put his injury-marred 2008 campaign in the rearview.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks (5.5 price tag): After a 2008 mired in injury and disappointment, the former Boston College Golden Eagle is ready to reclaim the NFC West crown with his notoriously deft decision-making. A visit to St. Louis is an ideal place to begin rebuilding lost value and accrue some sweet numbers against the Rams' ever-exploitable pass defense. If his balky back holds up, Hasselbeck could pay dividends like a Community Chest card.

Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals (5.7 price tag): "Hard Knocks" taught us that Palmer desires the perfect balance of water to powder when consuming Gatorade, his offseason drink of choice. It also taught us that Palmer's renowned arm strength is back, just in time to host the Denver Broncos' leaky secondary and pile up some nice numbers with his deep and capable receiving corps.

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens (5.0 price tag): The former Rutgers standout is an ideal long-term investment for the Challenge. With an appetizing matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs to start off the campaign and a majority share of the touches in a run-heavy offense, he's priced below gimpy tailbacks such as Jonathan Stewart and Pierre Thomas and should see a marked increase in value after a big first week.

Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos (5.2 price tag): No matter what happens with the Brandon Marshall saga, Royal remains a valuable asset to both fantasy teams and Challenge rosters alike. The Broncos' generous defense will see them embroiled in weekly shootouts, which should lead to some huge outings for Mr. Royal.

Kevin Smith, RB, Lions (5.6 price tag): If you're concerned that Smith's Lions will be down too much to the New Orleans Saints this week for him to get ample touches, just look to Week 16 last season when the then-rookie put up 111 yards and the team's lone touchdown in a blowout loss to the Saints. With the Lions' sweeping overhaul of the staff and roster, likely for the better, Smith is poised to have a strong campaign after finishing last season with a notably productive stretch.

One-week Wonders

Players who face favorable matchups and come at a discount but aren't trustworthy on a weekly basis

Mike Bell, RB, Saints (4.5 price tag): Something about being a marquee running back in New Orleans makes knees swell and ligaments jostle, as Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush limp into the season. Bell, however, boasts a clean bill of health and proved capable of manning the backfield this preseason. Although Bell won't tally impressive yardage in the Saints' pass-happy system as a complementary back, he has legit touchdown "vulture" potential.

Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals (5.1 price tag): Benson and "bust" are still loosely tied terms in NFL circles, but as a worthy venture, he should pay off nicely against the Broncos' permeable run defense. As tougher opponents loom in the coming weeks, Benson likely will deserve to be replaced on your roster, but he's an ideal speculation asset for this first week.

Zach Miller, TE, Raiders (4.4 price tag): Miller's first opponent, the San Diego Chargers, allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season by a wide margin. Although much has been made of the Chargers' improved and healed defense this season, little has changed in the way of augmenting their pass defense over the middle. Look for Miller to be a standout as JaMarcus Russell's favorite target for a Raiders team that likely will play from behind early.

New Orleans Saints defense/special teams (4.5 price tag): Consider that you get five points if your defensive selection wins and that the Saints host a rookie quarterback in a new offense, and this investment starts to make some sense. Also consider that New Orleans will have starting defensive ends Charles Grant and Will Smith in the lineup, as it is still unknown whether they must serve four-game suspensions for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. The "money" you save here can be used toward more enduring position investments.

Jim's Week 1 lineup:

QB Philip Rivers, Chargers, 6.0
QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks, 5.5
RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings, 6.5
RB Ray Rice, Ravens, 5.0
WR Randy Moss, Patriots, 5.9
WR Calvin Johnson, Lions, 5.9
TE Antonio Gates, Chargers, 4.7
K Kris Brown, Texans, 4.1
D San Diego Chargers, 5.1

Jim McCormick is a fantasy football analyst for ESPN.com as well as the editor and publisher of BLITZ Magazine, a print and online publication covering football from prep to pro.



 
Prizes

Play Gridiron Challenge for your chance to win a $1,100 Best Buy Gift Card and the Ultimate Fan Pack.
Total ARV is $2,500